Bank's priority? Improve credit risk models

Ewan Dunbar our consultant managing the role
Posting date: 4/24/2013 10:03 AM

FICO, a leading predictive analytics and decision management software company, and Efma today announced the results of the seventh European Credit Risk Survey, which measures retail bankers´ outlook for the availability of credit along with their investment priorities for the year ahead. In the February survey, completed by 130 credit risk professionals from 41 countries, the forecast for a “credit gap” between credit supply and demand fell sharply from the last survey, conducted this past fall. For consumers, the projected gap was just 4 percentage points, with 30 percent of respondents projecting some increase in the amount of credit requested and 26 percent projecting an increase in supply. By comparison, in the autumn 2012 survey the spread between projected demand and supply was a full 20 percentage points.

For small businesses, the gap was even smaller. In the new survey, 31 percent of respondents reported that they expect the aggregate amount of credit requested by small businesses to increase, and 29 percent expect the amount granted by lenders to also increase.

“Most of the new business growth in our corporate sector is coming from the SME segment,” said Dr. Cüneyt Sezgin, board and audit committee member at Turkey´s Garanti Bank in the FICO/Efma report. “Loans represent the primary relationship between banks and SMEs, as other financing alternatives for smaller companies are not well-developed in this market. Cash loans to SMEs represented 37 percent of total Turkish lira cash loans in 2012, and this ratio has been continuously increasing.”

“Despite the economic challenges in many countries, lenders are telling us they´re prepared to meet a modest increase in credit demand,” said Mike Gordon, senior vice president for FICO sales, services and marketing. “Given last month´s report that European banks have dramatically cut their Basel III capital shortfall, it appears that they gradually may be able to make more capital available for borrowers.”

European bankers also laid out their priorities for investment in analytics. More than 40 percent of respondents reported they will invest in improving their analytics, with the highest priorities being credit risk models for both new credit applicants (61 percent of respondents) and existing customers (50 percent). In addition, 38 percent of respondents said they will increase their investment in risk analytics that incorporate Big Data.

“Although consumer lending is a mature process using analytics to support risk classification, marketing, underwriting and authorizations, predictive models must constantly be calibrated to accommodate changes in consumers´ behavior,” said Manuel Goncalves, director of the Risk and Decision Models Unit at Portugal-based Millennium bcp in the report. “These changes are driven not only by the adverse economic context but also by greater mobility and social networking. At the same time, there are new and richer sources of data that can be used to improve risk management and deliver a better customer experience.”

The delinquency forecast was nearly unchanged from the last survey, with at least 40 percent of respondents forecasting an increase in delinquencies during the next six months on mortgages, credit cards and small business loans. “We don´t expect a reversal of this trend until the economies of Europe show greater recovery,” said Patrick Desmarès, secretary general of Efma. “That said, Europe is a heterogeneous region, with some countries preparing for a triple-dip recession while others, such as Turkey, look quite robust. The uncertainty across much of the region is particularly challenging for multi-national banks.”


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From Idea to Impact: How Charities Use Data

From Idea to Impact: How Charities Use Data

It’s that time of year again. As the festive season draws near and we pull together wish lists, many of us also begin to think about how we can give back. Given that the UK spent over £7 billion this Black Friday and Cyber Monday weekend, it’s not surprising that the idea of Giving Tuesday is becoming more and more popular.  But with 160,000 registered charities in the UK alone, institutions are turning to data to find new ways to stand out and make a greater impact.  Far from just running quarterly reports, charities are now utilising the insights they gain from data to inform their strategies, improve their services and plan for the future.  IDEAS Given that not every charity is lucky enough to go viral with an Ice Bucket Challenge style video, there is a need to find other ways to stand out in such a crowded market. As such, many are looking to the data they have collected to help create a strategy. Macmillan Cancer Support, one the UK’s biggest charities, wanted to see more success from one of their main fundraisers, ‘The World’s Biggest Coffee Morning’. The event, which sees volunteers hold coffee and cake-fuelled gatherings across the country was revolutionised by data. By engaging with their database and researching what motivated fundraisers, they refocused their marketing around how the occasion could create an opportunity for people to meet up and chat, such as swapping ‘send for your free fundraising pack’ for ‘order your free coffee morning kit’. Whilst these amends may seem superficial, they had a major impact increasing funds raised from £15m to £20m.  Some brands have taken this idea even further, using Data & Analytics tools to engage with potential donors. Homelessness charity Cyrenians’ data told them that there were a number of misconceptions about rough sleepers, including 15% of people believing that they were homeless by choice. To counter this they created an AI chatbot, named Alex, that allowed users to ask questions they may not have been comfortable asking a real person.  Another charity using data tools to counter common misconceptions is Dyslexia Association. Their Moment of Dyslexia campaign saw them utilise facial recognition technology; the longer a person looked at their digital poster, the more jumbled up the words and letters became. By harnessing both insights and the technology made possible by data, they were able to offer an insight into what dyslexia is like for people who previously didn’t understand.  INDIVIDUALS A big issue facing a number of charities is trust. Following a series of recent scandals, the public are more sceptical than ever of how charities are run, and their use of data is no exception. This ‘trust deficit’ has resulted in vast amount of potential donors staying away, with recent research highlighting that only 11% of people are willing to share their data with a charity, even if it means a better service.  Whilst charities with effective Data Governance are able to use their vast amount of data to enhance those business, those who mismanage it are likely to suffer. Following a cyber-attack that exposed the data of over 400,000 donors, the British and Foreign Bible Society were fined £100,000. As hackers were able to enter the network by exploiting a weak password, this serves as a timely reminder that our data needs not only to be clean, but secure.  Financial implications aside, improper data usage can also do irreversible damage to a charity’s reputation. St Mungo’s has faced criticism for passing information about migrant homeless people to the Home Office, putting them at risk of deportation. Whilst they were cleared of any wrongdoing by the ICO, this controversial use of data has had a negative impact on the charity’s image. With a decline in the number of people donating to charity overall, anything that can put people off further is bad news.  IMPACT Whilst there is more demand than ever for charities to share their impact data, there is also more opportunity. With Lord Gus O’Donnell urging charities to make data an ‘organisation-wide priority’, many are going beyond publishing annual reports and fully embracing a culture shift. Youth charity Keyfund have been able to justify how the spend their funds based on their impact data. Having heard concerns from fundraisers regarding whether their leisure projects were effective they looked at the data they had gathered from the 6,000 young people they were helping. What they found was that not only were their leisure projects effective, they had an even more positive impact than their alternatives, particularly for those from the most deprived area. This allowed them to continue to support these programs and even increase funding where necessary. Going one step further are Street League, a charity that use sports programmes to tackle youth unemployment. Rather than share their impact data in quarterly, or even annual, reports they moved to real-time reporting. Interested parties can visit an ‘Online Impact Dashboard’ and see up-to-the-minute data about how the charity’s work is impacting the lives of the people it is trying to help. This not only allows for the most relevant data to be used strategically, but also supports the business holistically, gaining donor both attention and trust. To stand out in the charity sector institutions need to take advantage of data. Not only can this be used to generate campaigns and streamline services but, when used securely and transparently, it can help rebuild trust and offer a competitive edge.  If you want to make the world a better place by harnessing and analysing data, we may have a role for you. Take a look at our latest opportunities or get in touch with one of our expert consultants to see how we can help you. 

Hunted’s Ben & Danni On Cybersecurity

Hunted’s Ben & Danni On Cybersecurity

Ben Owen and Danni Brooke are the Co-Directors for the EMEA Practice at Fortalice Solutions, a leading global cyber security and intelligence operations company.  They travel globally to assist clients with their cyber security requirements, bespoke training needs, intelligence and investigations both online and physical and counter fraud training/consultation. They deliver and manage a portfolio of pro-active intelligence solutions to keep people, nations and businesses safe from threats and head up the EMEA operations.  Ben and Danni also feature on the hit Channel 4 show, Hunted and Celebrity Hunted which has been airing for over four years with another series set to be filmed this summer. I caught up with them recently to discuss the latest Fraud, tools and challenges for the Cybersecurity industry. Cybersecurity is an ever-changing landscape. What trends do you anticipate for the next 12 months and beyond? It is always difficult to pin down what the next real trend is going to be in the Cybersecurity space as adversaries are becoming ever more sophisticated.  What was once a very difficult process for skilled individuals is becoming more readily available to novices with advances in software, particularly those shared on the Dark Web. What is an inevitable threat trend in the next 12-months and beyond is the exponential rise in the Internet of Things (IoT).  With a world where everything is hooked up to the web, it is apparent that tech companies selling these devices are under immense pressure to get products to market. The need for speed could mean that some security principles and best practices may be overlooked.   As the UK encountered during the Mirai Botnet attack of 2016, a network of electronic devices acting in concert can cripple the internet or, worst case, become a weapon that could cause actual physical damage as well as cyber damage, power stations, hospital networks to name but a few.   How have Data & Analytics impacted the detection, and prevention, of cyber-crime? A company will have to protect themselves against an enormous amount of cyber threats every second.  A cyber-criminal will only need one successful attempt. Data & Analytics are proving successful in the fight against cyber-crime and their proactive and holistic approach is at keeping people and businesses safe.  Of course, it is Data that is being stolen, but very often Data can come to the rescue.  It helps in a number of ways, e.g. identifying anomalies in employee and contractor computer usage and patterns, detecting irregularities in networks, identifies irregularities in device behaviour (a huge advantage with the rise of the IoT). What one must remember, however, is the people behind the Data.  You can’t simply collect Data and assume you will be able to detect and respond with the right actions.  You need the people with the right analytical skills to sift through the Data, find the right signals and then react to the threat with an appropriate and timely response.   What tools and technologies do you think will become increasingly important in the fraud and cyber-crime landscape? Here at Fortalice we are investing a lot of time into coverage of the Dark Web.  We live in a rapidly changing digital landscape. Criminals, fraudsters, and others are now operating with more sophistication and anonymity. Where do they go to exchange fraudulent details and ideas about current victims? What medium do they use to discuss organisational targets or new ways of defrauding companies? The answer is the Dark Web.  Traditionally, companies fight fraud from the inside out. We want to change this landscape by accessing the entirety of the Dark Web, its pages, shady storefronts, and treasure troves of Data, and drawing on monitoring toolsets to give our clients a 360-degree resource for identifying adversarial communications and movements. It’s all about Internet coverage.  Wherever it is difficult to find – that’s where your threat will be.   A final point to this question is one of sharing tools and techniques.  A collaborative approach is always a good way of making sure the wider audience benefits.  We always work with our clients and offer other services and support outside of our remit to make sure they’re fully protected from a cyber and physical space.   What are the biggest security threats for businesses? Security is fundamentally broken because the design of many security solutions does not design for the human psyche.  Security solutions are bolted on, clunky, and hard to use but because security teams prioritise defending against easier cyber threats, they often don’t focus on the hardware side. The biggest risk to companies and individuals is always defined by the Data that is most important to you or to the business.  For individuals, this might be privacy or identity. For businesses, this could be customer Data, intellectual property, and the company’s money in the bank. The reality is that business executives can’t outspend the (cybersecurity) issue and they must be prepared. Cybersecurity no longer exists in a vacuum and it must be elevated to the conversations held in the boardroom and with senior leadership as well as entire divisions, departments, and organisations. For someone trying to get into security analytics, what skills do you think are key to being successful in the industry? The detail is in the name of the role.  A huge ability to interpret large amounts of technical Data is key to the role, as well as being able to assimilate what it means and how to action it.  Risk management is also key to this role.  Very often you will identify potential risks and you will have to triage those priorities on your own as co-workers won’t have the technical expertise to assist.  You will need to be able to communicate successfully to all levels of a workforce and last but by no means least – a good sense of humour!  When you think you have gotten to understand a new threat or vulnerability a new one will replace it within seconds.  Time to put the kettle on, smile, and get back to work with your analytical prowess.   Within fraud, it's well known that criminals are sharing their approaches, is this mirrored in cyber-security and if so, how is the industry combating this? Criminal collaboration is huge on the web.  First of all, there is no talent shortage for fraud rings or cybercriminals. There are no requirements for fancy university degrees or certifications and the crime ring pays for performance.  They don’t care what you look like, how you dress, or if you clock in during normal work hours. They care about getting the job done - hacking into and stealing information from others. Together they are sadly stronger and more effective.  On Dark Web forums, you will see fraudsters sharing and selling their ‘IP’ knowing that others will also contribute. That way they are all winners.  In the private world ideas equal money. That is of course not a bad thing for business, but it is bad for collaboration. Businesses generally don’t like to share ideas with one another because it has taken them lots of time and expense to get to their product or solution. As cliché as this comment sounds - we have to change this landscape for the greater good.  There are lots of smart government initiatives for national defences in cyber security and fighting high-end cyber-crime but seldom does this have a positive impact locally with smaller businesses.  There is a huge amount of information out there for individuals and advice, but we need to bridge the gap still between criminal collaboration and that of the good guys. If you could change one thing in the industry, what would it be? The mind set of security professionals that humans are the weakest link. We’re not! Humans are at risk because technology is by design, open.  I’d also change the mind set of those not in the Cyber Security industry.  All too often the severity of what is being reported is not taken seriously, nor are budgets set aside for cyber security issues.  That said, it is improving but there is a long way to go.  Ben and Danni spoke to Senior Consultant, Rosalind Madge. Get in touch with Rosalind or take a look at our latest job opportunities here.

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