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When looking at the cyber security measures in 2019 the outcome is uncertain. Threats come in the form of pariah states, extremely skilled individuals, and illiberal actors. However, what is certain is the leaps and bounds made in technology. Before computers, defence documents were in government offices. By the Second World War this would progress onto secure sites, take Bletchley Park for example. The real watershed would come years later in the Cold War. While there was no direct military action (aside from the proxy Korean and Vietnam War), this tension was illustrated elsewhere, with the space race and nuclear armaments to name but a few. Both sides went to extraordinary lengths to guard and seize intelligence through covert ops. As this classified information made its way onto computers and in turn brought about new risks. This theme continues to the present day; as technology improves, so do offensive and defensive capabilities.
Hard Power With the advancement in technology this has been used by militaries to take and saves lives. Only a matter of years ago aerial bombardment would have to involve putting pilots at risk, flying deep behind enemy lines. These days, a bombing run could be carried out anywhere in the globe with the ‘pilot’ not having to leave their chair. How? Through Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs). This removes any casualties to their pilots, using advanced systems in Computer Vision to operate across the globe. The ethics of this remain debated and there are many who express doubts at the use of AI, fearing their destructive potential. Others, however, see this as necessary advancement. Indeed, in asymmetric warfare, established states’ advanced technology is near enough untouchable. Take an example from the US Marines. Still in testing, an advanced platform can allow troops on the ground to see if a room has been cleared, saving friendly lives. This is way above the capabilities of rogue terrorist forces, and looks set to play a crucial role in saving lives. It would seem highly unlikely that the Taliban, for example, could use sophisticated weaponry to bring down a jet. However, the danger in 2019 now lies with the established illiberal states who still pose a serious threat. It is paramount that nations continue to advance, to both deter and, if needed, counter a hostile force.
Soft Power While NATO states have shown dominance in physical terms over past foes, 2019 brings uncertainty when it comes to soft power, most notably cyber-security. The threats to this are very real, and are a put civilians at risk - take the Sony and NHS hackings as an example. Moreover, the notion of alleged election meddling continues to plague politics, notably the US 2016 Election and the Brexit referendum. There have been several accusations of state-sponsored foul play incorporating the use of bots to influence people’s decision making, mostly through continual pressure on either fake news or mass-support of certain decisions. They impact society directly into our homes, considering the popularity of social media platforms like Twitter and Facebook. Alongside many other nations, the UK is taking action to counter this type of threat. Only recently a specialist cyber-security division in the army has been established, quite literally to both counter, and if needed, launch cyber-attacks. Ultimately, society has come a long way, physically and online when it comes to defence. Sophisticated weaponry continues to develop but is raising new ethical questions, particularly in regards to the use of AI and Computer Vision. Civilian institutions remain at risk, with many having been targeted in hacks or through intervention on social media. Threats may continue to evolve, but so will defence strategies, with the two competing to stay one step ahead of the other. If you’re interested in applying Data & Analytics to national security, we may have a role for you. Take a look at our latest opportunities, or get in touch with one of our expert consultants to find out more.
31. July 2019
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